TheRealOdds has a model to calculate what the real odds should be for English Premier League (EPL) football matches.

Q) Where do these odds come from?

A) We have built a model based purely on statistical data from the EPL.

Q) How are the odds determined?

A) Using historical statistics the implied probability of the 3 possible match outcomes - Home Win (H), Away Win (A) or Draw (D)- in a match between any two EPL teams can be calculated.

Q) Does the model tell me who will win a game?

A) No. The model only gives the theoretical probabilities of the 3 possible outcomes (H/A/D) and therefore the theoretical odds for the 3 outcomes.

Q) How often are the input parameters changed?

A) Only between seasons. The model takes form out of the equation. For the majority of teams their form is mean-reverting so as the bookmaker odds change from game to game to reflect current form it creates opportunities. Over the long run these opportunities represent real value. In the event of dramatic changes to a club's resources or ability, e.g going into administration and losing a significant proportion of the strongest players the model inputs may to be changed for that team. So far this has not been neccesary.

Q) Why do these odds differ from the odds available at the numerous online bookmakers?

A) The odds offered by bookmakers are dynamic. These markets change, often quite considerably, leading up to kickoff of EPL games. The odds offered by bookmakers reflect their best estimate of the probabilities of outcomes plus the distortion created by the demand, one way or the other, from the betting public. Often the bookmakers are inconsistent week to week in the odds for the same team versus different opponents. These inconsistencies and systematic mis-pricings in certain types of games create opportunities.

Q) Can the model predict the correct score in a match?

A) No. The model does produces a grid of probabilities of match scores. Like match outcomes (W/L/D) they are only probabilities and not predictions. In any case, the 'correct score' probabilities generated by the model are not publicised on this website.

Q) What has been the historical performance of this model?

A) The model was launched before the start of the 2011-12 season. The YTD results are shown in the 2011-12 section. The statistical historic performance for previous seasons, taking starting odds for each game, are shown in the Historical Performance sections. The overall performance will be added in a Summary section shortly.